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The Centers for Disease Control, for example, recommends that long-term care facilities refuse all visitations “except for certain compassionate care reasons, such as end-of-life situations.” Some have suggested that all elderly people remain isolated. The same is true for certain social-distancing measures. If we’re in this for the long haul, their actions are encouraging overinvestment in economic activities that face truly existential risks. This would be defensible if officials were sure that the pandemic will pass within a year. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and Congress have worked assiduously (and successfully) to ensure that companies have roughly equal access to funding. Yet all the emergency relief from governments and central banks is aimed at easing only a temporary shock. Sectors that have seen a boost – such as streaming services – could be permanent winners.
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Sectors that are expected to bounce back – such as tourism – could be out for good. A longer-term crisis would have very different implications for the economy. allows you to analyze different alternatives such as investments and rates of return. the amount of money an investment will grow to over some period of time at some given interest rate. and much of the world can follow New Zealand’s lead and almost eliminate the disease. a dollar today is worth more than a dollar at some other time in the future. So a very long battle with Covid-19 seems entirely possible – while it seems nearly impossible that the U.S.
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Almost everyone would remain susceptible, whether or not they’d had it in the past. In that case, developing a vaccine would be a lot harder, and the concept of “herd immunity” would be meaningless. By 2050 there will be 9 billion carbon-burning, plastic. Maybe antibodies will turn out to confer little or no protection from infection, as is true for some viruses. Despite technologies, regulations, and policies to make humanity less of a strain on the earth, people just won’t stop reproducing. But even spring of 2023 would be the fastest in medical history, and there’s no guarantee of that. But what if the malaise lasts much longer? It’s a scenario that policy makers must recognize and prepare for.īreathless media constantly repeat that a vaccine might be widely available by next spring. (Bloomberg Opinion) - So far, the response to the coronavirus pandemic has operated on the assumption that the worst will be over within a year or so.